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A Cold & Wet Backend

Autumn has arrived and the central heating has been turned on; central as in it is produced somewhere central to the city and is piped to all apartments.

It is now ON regardless of the temperature outside and with no ability to adjust it or switch it off so apartments and other buildings become super-heated for the next six to seven months.

Having said that it is a bit chilly here at the moment with the first morning frosts starting to appear but the big news is how wet it has been and how winter plantings in Ukraine and Russia have been affected.

Russia has planted nearly 8.0mha of the planned 16.3mha and it looks like it will now be too late to get much more in before winter kicks in.

Ukraine has planted 2.0mh but a period of settled weather forecast and a longer planting window may mean they will get closer to the planned 8.0mh over the next three weeks.

Current thinking is that around 3.0mha in Ukraine will remain unplanted but I’m not so sure; I have planted wheat as late as November in Ukraine and it still produced a viable crop.

The more immediate impact of wet weather will be felt by the harvest of soya, sunflower and grain maize, crops not widely grown in the UK but massively important in Russia and Ukraine.

Rain has delayed the start of harvest and increased drying costs, crop prices are currently at a four year low and we have record areas of plantings; all of which suggest a difficult time ahead for some.

As a consequence I anticipate land becoming available at some decent discounts come the spring as businesses consolidate to cover overheads and spring operations.

Could be a good time to consider investing in Ukraine or Russia and picking up that small farm you have always dreamed of.

The second big news story this week was how Ukraine had sold an unprecedented 3 million hectares of prime farmland to China only for it to be quickly denied by Ukraine who said it had all been a big misunderstanding and what had actually agreed to was to cooperate in a 3 thousand hectare drip irrigation project.

Something odd going on there but it does highlight the importance of food security to the likes of China and the position that Ukraine and possibly Russia will play in the future.

On a personal front I am looking for a suitable location for a family winter break, any suggestions would be gratefully received.

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One Response to "A Cold & Wet Backend"

FarmersReviewTom
Oct 03, 2013 04:25 PM

Pretty big misunderstanding that!

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